INDIANAPOLIS

This column is being written during the explosive Senate Judiciary testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, but the topic unfolding below is my initial forecasting for Indiana General Assembly races.

The reason for this juxtaposition is the sensational and bizarre events cascading over the U.S. Capitol and how they could impact races ranging from Republican Mike Braun’s challenge to Sen. Joe Donnelly, to legislative seats in suburban Indiana.

How the Ford v. Kavanaugh testimony impacts the Nov. 6 election will be the topic of columns over the next few weeks. At this writing, the so-called “blue wave” (or “pink wave”) that has been speculative of potential Democrat gains is impossible to gauge. The Supreme Court testimony is akin to a bomb lobbed into the mid-term elections. We just don’t know who takes the shrapnel.

After talking to Republican and Democratic operatives, this is clear: All eyes are on suburban districts in places like Crown Point, Valparaiso, Granger, Mishawaka, Westfield, Zionsville, Carmel, the Lafayettes, Indianapolis, and those north of Louisville.

At these locales, we’re watching Democratic challenges to State Reps. Julie Olthoff in the Crown Point area by Lisa Beck, Sally Siegrist in Lafayette from Chris Campbell, and Cindy Kirchhofer in Indianapolis from former Rep. John Barnes.

There’s Rep. Dale DeVon getting a hard challenge from Dr. Donald Westerhausen of Elkhart, Rep. Donna Schaibley in Hamilton County from Naomi Bechtold, and Rep. Jim Pressel from Karen Salzer in LaPorte County.

Note the many female challengers.

In the Senate, Republican incumbent Mike Delph faces a vigorous rematch from Democrat J.D. Ford, while Sen. Jim Merritt has his hands full against Democrat Derek Camp, both districts split between Indianapolis and Hamilton County, while Sen. Jon Ford is being pressed by Democrat Chris Gambill in the Terre Haute area.

I’m also watching an open seat north of Louisville and Democrat Anna Murray’s challenge to Republican Sen. Ron Grooms around Jeffersonville.

At this point, both Democrat and Republican operatives see only modest gains for Democrats, maybe three to four seats in the Senate, where Republicans have a 41-9 supermajority, and three to seven seats in the House, where Republicans control 70-30.

If Sen. Joe Donnelly loses to Braun and Democrats don’t make serious inroads in the General Assembly, Indiana will essentially become cemented as a one-party state. Not only do Democrats control only 39 of 150 legislative seats, but only three of 11 congressional seats and none of the Statehouse constitutional offices. So this election has enormous consequences.

Democrats should benefit from the national environment with President Trump’s approval mired in the low 40-percent range. A recent Ipsos/Reuters Poll in Indiana showed Donnelly with a 46-43 percent lead over Braun. I remember Donnelly telling me Sen. Richard Lugar was in trouble in 2012 when he polled under 50 percent. But it shows Trump’s Indiana approval at 48 percent, with 51 percent disapproving, well below the 57 percent he won the state with in 2016.

Brian A. Howey of Nashville is publisher of Howey Politics Indiana at howeypolitics.com. Find him on Facebook and Twitter @hwypol. Send comments to [email protected].